I am massively in favour of voting reform, I think changing “the rules of the game” will have a massive impact on how the game is played. And a proper pluralism in our Party system, where different viewpoint currently kept out of things by our party oligarchies being involved would be a good thing. I think we need disenfranchised voices from the left, from the green, even from the eurosceptic right (though not to keen on them myself) involved more in our party discourse.

But irrespective of whether or not voting reform happens here are a couple of things that are possible (if a little improbable).

A Liberal Conservative Party or List?

It is an oft stated bit of truism that the moderates, and centrists in all of our parties tend to be more comfortable with each other, than with the opposite wings of their respective parties.

One interesting outcome of the Con/Dem pact will be if the Centre and the Left of the Tory Party, in addition to the Centre and the Right of the Lib Dem parties decide they are frankly more comfortable with, and closer to, each other than they are they are to the “extreme” wings of their own parties.

In truth there is probably not a great deal of ideological difference between the Lib Dem “Orange Book” faction and the so called “Notting Hill Set” in the Tory party. Further there are some common philosophical themes through the respective “Libertarian” wings of each party.

As to how it could happen I doubt there would be a dramatic “gang of four” moment with people setting off to form a new party. More probable would be if the coalition lasts until the next election some sort of a selective no competeagreement between the two parties to keep out Labour in key marginals and to increase the proportion of pro-coalition Mps in their respective parties.

I could imagine, that after the next election if no coalition is necessary that the Tory party may well invite a number of Lib Dems to cross the floor and take the Tory whip, boosting their numbers and changing the complexion of the Parliamentary Tory Party to one that would be more instinctively behind Cameron. How the right, particularly at in constituencies would react could be interesting! More on that later….

The Labour Right and the Lib Dem Left.

So in this scenario what happens to the Left of the Lib Dem party? Worth remembering that the Lib Dem party is a coalition themselves, the result of a merger between the Liberal party and the Social Democrat Party. Now the “Orange Book” faction that seem so cosy with the Tories at the moment comes very much more from the Classical Liberal party.

The SDP was essentially a splinter faction of the Labour Party, when the “Gang of Four” (Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen William Rodgers) left the Labour Party due to concerns about its shift to the left and in their eyes it’s un-democratic nature to form a new party of the Centre Left. After failing to dislodge Labour as the party of the left the Liberal and SDP parties merged.

Now the interesting thing is that the Gang of Four probably would not have left the party that Labour became, from the expulsion of the Militant tendency in the 80s, the structural reforms in Labour Party democracy to move closer to one man one vote, and the abolition of clause IV New Labour in many ways became the centrist party the SDP dreamed of.

I think it is probably fair to say that the Right of the Labour party would welcome the disaffected left of the Lib Dems with open arms. Now further if (and I consider this very improbable) the Labour party moves a long way to the left, and the Mandlesonian clique finds themselves marginalised I can see a situation where the Labour Party free marketers might want to come together with the left of the Lib Dems… We could see the SDP reborn!

Right Tory Elements and UKIP

So let’s just assume that the “Libservative” thing happens. Where does that leave the Tory hard right? Well already in lots of places Tory traditionalists and eurosceptics probably see more in common with UKIP than they do with the Cameroon Notting Hill faction. Norman Tebbit has frequently all but come out for UKIP, particularly during the Euro elections.

I think it is probably fair to say a big recasting of the Tory party in a much more liberal “one nation Tory” mode would be manna from heaven for UKIP in terms of defections from the Conservatives. Particularly if some sort of a “no compete” list actually happened, and local associations were disgruntled at having to effectively support a Liberal Democrat in an election.

What now for the Left.

Well since the modernisers in the Labour party came to the fore where Democratic Socialists and those to the left of them fall has been a tricky topic. The Diaspora of myriad left wing parties riddled by factionalism, petty jealousies and in fighting is as shocking as it is depressing.

By my count you have:-

Respect, The Socialist Party, The Socialist Workers Party, The Socialist Labour Party, The Communist Party, Workers Power, The Communist Party of Great Britain, and The Peoples Front of Judea…. no wait a second that last one is from a film!

Now assuming that Labour don’t move drastically to the left (and I am sure they won’t, the conclusion they will reach is that the problem wasn’t that they were new labour, it was that they weren’t new labour enough!) then where will the left coalesce?

My view is that it won’t be any of the infighting fracture groups who are surely doomed to remain a marginalised irrelevance. No I think the future of genuine left wing political groupings will be the Green Party.

Even a cursory glance at recent Green Party manifestos show how in many ways they have adopted the mantle of the disaffected left. They are pro Union, in favour of redistributive tax policies, strong on Labours biggest area of weakness Civil Liberties. And of course they are the strongest on what is going to IMHO increasingly become the rallying call of the left and how the left attracts new disciples… the environment.

Further the Party is a good “brand”, they are a credible nationally organised Party (now boasting a Member of Parliament), they appeal to young people and new voters, to different demographics. Also they poll well in local and European elections giving them a perfect platform to grow particularly if electoral reform ever happens. For the disaffected the left “The future is bright, the future is Green”.

I must say that I find the idea of the Greens attractive, though their crazy mental anti science stance means at least for now they are not for me. But this really is where the left has a chance of making a difference, the plethora of vanity project left wing parties are frankly a joke and will never achieve anything.

So there we have it, much this this will probably never happen but I reckon there is a possibility of some of it taking place.

1. The Tories didn’t win.

This election was there for them, the Labour party had been in power for 13 years was becoming deeply unpopular. There was on the doorstep that feeling of “time for change”, which is so hard for a ruling party argue rationally against. We were in the middle of the worst recession since the 1930s, and incumbent governments will always get the blame. The right wing press were as rabidly behind the Tories as they have been in a generation and across the media we had a hugely difficult environment.

But despite all of this, despite this gaping own goal, the Tories somehow conspired to mess it up, and the reality is they are not going to be able to wield absolute power (more on that later). On top of that far from being wiped out the Labour party still has 250 odd seats and will be able to mount an effective opposition.

2. The Labour party have lost their way.

I didn’t want the Tories to get in, and I had (have) no doubt that in a Tory Britain things would get worse for working people. But, I also know that “The enemy of my enemy” only goes so far. The reality is for me 13 years of Labour government has been a crushing disappointment. Despite some early successes (minimum wage, signing the social chapter) in the main the Labour government has not lived up to what I had expected, hoped for and dreamed for growing up in Thatchers Britain.

As a keen student of the history of British politics I had hope for a genuinely radical, transformative agenda such as the Atlee post war government, or Roy Jenkins social reforms in the 60s. Fundamentally we didn’t get that, unfortunately the score card at the end of our most successful period of electoral history, three consecutive governments and 13 years or rule reads:-

The gap between rich and poor got greater, draconian trade union legislation remains in place and the biggest erosion of civil liberty in living memory took place….. And IRAQ.

Losing is never good, but if the Labour party can re-find some of the balance it lost around the turn of the Millennium, then it can refresh and renew and be electable. If nothing else it does afford the opportunity to remember why we are in politics and what the aim is. Harold Wilson said that the Labour party soars best when both its left and right wings are strong. Since Mandleson came back there has only been one game in town and if the Labour party wants to win again we need to change that.

3. It’s a coalition, Not Thatcher with a massive Majority.

We all like to imagine the worst, and for Political reasons it made sense for us to spend the whole election evoking memories of the Worst of Thatcher and Thatcherism. But in the same way as Labour governments are different so are Tory ones. Cameron isn’t Maggie and would have been a different type of leader even if he had won outright.

But the fact that they are in coalition means that they will inevitably have to make compromises, and whisper it, but some of the things that the Libs might get in we might even like. I, and most on the left I imagine, will (though perhaps secretly) cheer form the rafters when ID cards get scrapped, and if they repeal some of the worst aspects of the authoritarian legislation our lot put in.

4. Electoral Reform.

Change needs to happen, our political system is broken. Not only is it manifestly unfair, but the electoral maths of FPTP elections system skews the whole political system in favour of a narrow band of people. Put bluntly middle England, middle class, swing voters in swing seats decide elections. And the whole public policy agenda is therefore focussed on this narrow band of interest.

If we want the possibility of radical, transformative government who will make the world a better place, then the truth is we need to change to rules of the game.

And with this election result it looks like we are going to get a referendum on the Alternative Vote. I don’t think the AV system is fantastic, it is not what I would personally advocate (I am a fan on the STV) but it is definitely a step in the right direction. A small step like this could change politics in the UK forever and for the better. And for me this is a definite silver lining.

5. The Liberal Democrats tarnished.

As a general rule of thumb parties rarely get * more * popular as a result of being in Government. On the contrary normally the opposite is the case. The Libs have clearly benefited from being seen as “outsiders” and “different” and not tarnished by peoples memory of the Tories under thatcher or the current Labour government. This will change, the Liberals are in government. The cuts, and the pain, will be their cuts and their pain.

People often saw them as a “safe” vote if you hated the Tories but couldn’t back Labour. People will surely for a generation not vote Liberal to keep the Tories out again. What this means is that Labour are the only opposition, that if you disagree with the Government you cant vote Liberal or Tory. There is only one credible place to go. It becomes a fantastic opportunity for the Labour party to recover providing the party boxes clever and does not implode. In future when Labour people on the doorstep say “Vote Liberal, Get Tory” people will believe it. And that can only help the Labour party at the next election.

So there we have it things are bad, but maybe not the end of the world. There are 5 reasons for us on the left to be optimistic.